Tuesday18 February 2025
vesti.org.ua

Can Trump achieve peace for Ukraine? Bloomberg warns against capitulation.

The reviewer issued a concerning statement about a scenario that leans more towards capitulation rather than the peace that Ukrainians are striving for.
Сможет ли Трамп добиться мира для Украины: в Bloomberg предостерегли от капитуляции.

The newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, will not be able to open the door to a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine – at least not under the conditions that the Kremlin is currently willing to consider. TSN reports. This is stated by Kontrakty.UA.

This is mentioned in an article for Bloomberg by analyst Mark Champion.

The publication notes that for Ukraine, 2024 has become a nightmare, largely caused by the collapse of the victory formula from the beginning of the war: the recruitment of motivated soldiers to operate complex Western arsenals.

The author of the article believes that Trump is unlikely to be able to open the door to peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.

"Can Donald Trump, who has just taken office as President of the United States and has already achieved a ceasefire in Gaza, open the door to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine? Clearly, no – at least not under the conditions that the Kremlin is currently willing to consider. Such a scenario would be closer to capitulation than to the peace that Ukrainians seek," the material states.

Champion believes that Trump will only have a chance to influence events if Ukraine strengthens its position to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin of the inevitability of losses in case of his refusal for a genuine resolution of the war. However, if support for Ukraine from the new U.S. administration is insufficient, the Russian dictator will have even fewer incentives for compromise.

The author of the article explained the essence of the "strong hand" strategy. Thus, Ukraine must be able to deter Russia by inflicting significant losses, halting its ground advance, and being confident in the support of allies.

"If Trump wants everything to move quickly, the threat must be much sharper," the publication states.

The new U.S. president's foreign policy team is already adjusting expectations regarding a peaceful resolution in Ukraine: from promises of peace within 24 hours after the inauguration to a timeline of 100 days or more. However, the main strategy remains the easing of oil sanctions, which is meant to encourage Putin to engage in constructive dialogue. According to the analyst, this tactic appears overly naive unless backed by significant pressure levers.

The material also discusses how, at the beginning of the full-scale war, the symbiosis between the Ukrainian military and Western weaponry allowed Kyiv to successfully resist a much stronger enemy. However, after the unsuccessful counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, this mechanism began to fail. The situation was exacerbated by the delay in Congress allocating $60 billion in aid. The lack of resources and manpower deepens the crisis.

According to former advisor to Ukraine's Defense Forces Oleksandr Danilyuk, among potential recruits, there is a growing perception of military service as a "one-way ticket." This lowers motivation, especially against the backdrop of rising casualties and limited resources for conducting the war. Sending poorly equipped conscripts to the front appears to be a risk for the future in exchange for an illusory reward.

However, this situation can still change by 2025. Ukraine's own weapons production capabilities have sharply increased since the beginning of the war. While the prospects on the battlefield are grim, as Ukraine must resort to a strategy of territorial concessions in exchange for maximum losses to Russia, there are currently no signs of collapse or a Russian breakthrough.

Under these conditions, calls from National Security Advisor candidate Mike Waltz, such as lowering the conscription age to 18 to demonstrate "commitment to democracy," are indecent. The author of the article emphasized that Ukraine has already made enormous sacrifices, and its weakness lies not in a lack of will but in a shortage of resources.

"Having more well-equipped soldiers to strengthen Ukraine's defensive lines and regain initiative on the battlefield will be critical to convincing Putin to agree to a genuine resolution," the analyst stressed.

In his opinion, in the long term, this would benefit both Russia and Europe and the U.S. But by the time this becomes clear to all parties in the conflict, both Putin and Trump will have long been gone.

Additionally, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, a durable peace will come from providing Ukraine with more powerful weapons from the Trump administration.