The peacekeeping efforts of U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine are at odds with Russia's negotiation tactics and the objectives of President Vladimir Putin in this conflict. Following the meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh, the Kremlin is already laying the groundwork for endless negotiations. Reports TCN. This is reported by Kontrakty.UA.
This is reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Last week, Putin tempered expectations for a swift conclusion to the negotiations, stating that it would "take some time," while avoiding a direct answer about how long it would take to see results.
"For Russia, negotiations with the U.S. are a victory in themselves, as they help end the isolation imposed on Moscow by the Biden administration, which refused to engage with the Kremlin following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Kremlin stated that it is not interested in a simple ceasefire, as it believes that the Ukrainians could use a pause in hostilities to rearm. Instead, Putin wants to address what he calls the 'root causes' of the conflict, which he claims include Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO and the anti-Russian government in Kyiv," the article states.
At the same time, the Kremlin sees an advantage in prolonging negotiations regarding Ukraine. Russia intends to use its gains on the battlefield to dictate favorable terms at the negotiating table.
Despite Trump's desire to end the war quickly, even considering that his position has recently shifted decisively in favor of Russia, reaching any agreement at the negotiating table will be challenging. This is because Putin's true objectives extend far beyond the territories that his occupying army has managed to seize over the years of war in Ukraine.
The Russian president wants to limit the size of the Ukrainian army and its armaments, obtain guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality, and control the direction of its political future. This is at odds with Kyiv's long-term plans to join NATO and the European Union.
"There are significant doubts in the Kremlin that Trump and his team understand the complexity of the issues that need to be resolved," said Thomas Graham, a former White House advisor on Russia during George W. Bush's presidency, who returned from a trip to Moscow earlier this month.
Some of Moscow's greatest diplomatic victories of the last century were achieved at the negotiating table when its army "created new military realities on the front lines."
For instance, in the last year of World War II, Joseph Stalin moved to more stringent demands in negotiations with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt as Soviet troops pushed the German army out of Poland. The results had catastrophic consequences for Warsaw and other Central and Eastern European countries that the USSR controlled for another half-century after the war ended.
"Stalin was able to improve his negotiating position with Churchill and Roosevelt because his troops were creating new realities on the battlefield. You can see how Putin thinks in similar terms," said Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War expert and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Experts believe that time is only working in favor of the Russians.
"As Russia's position on the battlefield improves, the Russians are only raising the stakes. I would assume that the General Staff is currently trying to convince Putin that now is the time to press the gas and achieve maximum territorial gains," said political scientist Samuel Charap from the American think tank Rand.
The U.S. has means to pressure Moscow, for example, by tightening sanctions or increasing military aid to Kyiv. Trump hinted at such measures shortly after taking office, writing on his Truth Social platform that it would be "better for Putin to make a deal," warning that this "can be done the easy way or the hard way."
However, recently, Trump has indicated that he prefers "polite conversation" with the Kremlin. Since the U.S. president wants to achieve a peace agreement as soon as possible, he has only two options – to pressure Moscow or to pressure Kyiv. And it seems that in Trump's eyes, Kyiv appears to be the easier target, Graham believes.
Moreover, after several years of isolation that Russia found itself in due to Biden's strategy, Putin wants to show Trump that he will not be able to quickly rid himself of Russia and ignore relations with the Kremlin.
Under Joe Biden and Barack Obama, the U.S. sought to punish Russia partly by limiting or severing contacts in an attempt to isolate Moscow on a global scale. Reviving dialogue is in itself a victory for the Kremlin.
"They want to interact with the U.S. for some time. They do not want the United States or Trump to think that this is a matter of two or three months, after which they can focus on China and forget about the Russians," emphasized Graham.
It should be noted that the Russian Foreign Ministry denied information about new negotiations with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia on February 25. Earlier, such a date was mentioned by Donald Trump.