Due to the decline of the Russian aerospace industry and limited project potential, the aggressor country's strategy regarding long-range aviation consists solely of modernizing outdated platforms rather than developing new aircraft. This concerns the fleet of old Tu-160 bombers. Therefore, there are doubts about the future capabilities of Russia's strategic air forces. Reports TSN. This was also noted by Kontrakty.UA.
This statement was made by expert and former Pentagon consultant Ruben F. Johnson, as mentioned in an article by 19FortyFive.
Russia aims to enhance its strategic bombers with modern avionics and new serial models. However, there is a significant issue.
"The original design of the bomber is quite old, as it has been in use since the Cold War," writes Ruben F. Johnson.
According to him, the so-called "Tu-160M2 Program," announced back in 2015, intended to overhaul 16 existing aircraft and produce 50 new ones, but progress has slowed due to sanctions and limited resources.
"Meanwhile, the proposed next-generation stealth bomber PAK-DA remains unlikely due to technological and personnel constraints," the expert stated.
In his opinion, because of the decline in the aerospace industry and limited project potential, Russia's long-range aviation strategy relies on modernizing outdated platforms instead of developing new aircraft, raising doubts about the future capabilities of Russia's strategic air forces.
The expert explained that in 2015, the Russians announced plans for the Tu-160 bomber fleet, which was expected to grow significantly in both quality and quantity. They emphasized that 16 of their old aircraft would be completely refurbished and equipped with entirely new onboard systems. Additionally, another 50 aircraft would be built on the assembly line at the Kazan Aviation Plant, where this aircraft was originally produced.
The publication also cited a statement from Yuri Borisov, the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation for procurement, who in 2015 stated that "any new types of aircraft will be designated as Tu-160M2, and according to our plans, this will likely happen sometime after 2023."
The expert also provided another reason why Russia cannot develop new aircraft.
"The Russian workforce in the defense sector comprises only a small fraction of the former Soviet workforce, which further limits its ability to engage in any serious aircraft design and manufacturing," Johnson noted.
He stated that many workers have retired and were not replaced, and there have been deep cuts in the Russian defense sector itself. Estimates suggest that the staff in the most critical design bureaus is less than 10% of the peak workforce in the sector during the 1980s.
"The number of people left in what remains of the aircraft research and development sector is sufficient only for carrying out modernization or modification programs. There is no way this small group of people could design or build anything new—even if all of them were geniuses," he said.
Recall that the head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, commented on information regarding a possible preparation for a powerful massive strike on Ukraine on February 24.