Ukraine has launched a new offensive in the Kyiv region, aiming to regain the initiative, expose Russia's ongoing vulnerabilities, and strengthen its position ahead of potential peace negotiations. Reports TSN. This information is also shared by Kontrakty.UA.
This is mentioned in a publication by The Hill.
While many experts questioned Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region in August 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged that Kyiv's position there could play a crucial role in potential negotiations with Russia.
The authors of the article point out that in a country like Russia—known for its history of sudden upheavals, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union—rapid and unpredictable changes remain likely. Military defeats have often led to political turmoil, as seen in 1917 when losses in World War I helped ignite the Russian Revolution. Although today's circumstances are different, the underlying dynamics are similar: persistent pressure on the battlefield combined with rising domestic discontent could pave the way for an unexpected "black swan" event. However, this is not the reason Ukraine has moved into the Kursk region.
Currently, the Russian economy is showing increasing vulnerability as rampant inflation forces the central bank to attempt to stabilize the ruble. Additional sanctions, such as those targeting Russia's shadow fleet and oil revenues, could further strain the country's economy, offering newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump a strategic opportunity to intensify pressure for negotiations. It remains to be seen whether Trump will want to leverage this pressure, as once suggested by his future national security advisor. According to the Financial Times, Trump seeks to appear strong and negotiate from a position of power.
Ukraine's new military operation in Kursk appears to be a strategically calculated move just weeks before Trump's inauguration. Feeling the pressure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has dispatched one of his most capable commanders, General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, to oversee operations in the Kursk region to regain control. Since August, Russia has managed to reclaim about 40% of the territory initially captured by Ukraine, but it has not fully driven out enemy forces. Ukrainian forces are now advancing towards the village of Velyke Soldatske, northeast of Suja, seemingly taking advantage of gaps in Russian defensive lines.
The article notes that while these military maneuvers are risky for Ukraine, the potential political rewards are significant enough to justify the attempt. Ukraine aims to demonstrate strength and show that it is actively fighting, and that the West must continue its support.
"As the new administration holds all the cards, Trump may conclude that Russia's current weakness and vulnerability present an ideal opportunity to intensify pressure, compelling Russia to come to the negotiating table and begin talks. Thus, the occupied Ukrainian Kursk would become a key bargaining chip in negotiations with Putin," the material concludes.
Recall that earlier, the head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, stated that Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region was tactical but has become a strategic success.