Negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine?! There are renewed discussions online regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's preparations to congratulate newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump on his inauguration, along with several surprises. Notably, Moscow is already gearing up for potential talks with the new U.S. president, and discussions are set to focus on Ukraine. This information comes from Kontrakty.UA.
What Putin will demand from Ukraine during negotiations with Trump can be seen in the exclusive report from TSN.UA.
U.S. and Russia Negotiations
Only a few days remain until Trump's inauguration. On January 20, he will enter the White House, marking a significant historical turning point. Several experts predict that the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will largely depend on him. Moreover, there are rumors that Moscow is preparing for potential negotiations with the new U.S. president and has many demands.
It is reported that dictator Putin will demand a complete severance of military ties with NATO from Ukraine during the upcoming negotiations with Trump. Additionally, he seeks to have Ukraine declared a neutral state with a limited military force. Bloomberg cites its own sources in this regard. It is noted that Putin is becoming increasingly confident in his military advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine. Therefore, he aims to achieve his goal of ensuring that Kyiv never joins NATO and that restrictions are placed on its military capabilities:
"The Kremlin maintains that while individual NATO members may continue to supply arms to Ukraine under bilateral security agreements, this weaponry should not be used against Russia or for territorial conquest."
Bloomberg emphasizes that such harsh demands will certainly not be welcomed by Ukraine. After all, everything we are currently fighting for and working on is desired by one mad dictator. Journalists point out that Putin's position is also at odds with Trump's declared desire to end the war as soon as possible and may be aimed at giving Moscow the freedom to maneuver during negotiations. Meanwhile, Russian achievements in eastern Ukraine are progressing slowly and at a high cost.
A Bloomberg source claims that Ukraine and Russia are conducting limited negotiations in Qatar regarding the protection of nuclear facilities from attacks. In contrast, Ukrainian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, assert that the only negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow currently revolve around prisoner exchanges and the return of children.
What Territories Does Russia Want?
Russia's insatiability knows no bounds. Journalists also report that the Russian Federation will demand, during negotiations, to maintain at least de facto control over nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory currently under occupation, including the Crimean Peninsula. Meanwhile, Bloomberg claims that "Moscow is open to territorial exchanges."
What Does Trump Say?
While the future U.S. leader and his main aides have not shown much enthusiasm for security guarantees for Ukraine, particularly concerning NATO membership, some in Trump's camp support backing Kyiv to negotiate from a position of strength. The publication reminds us that Ukraine's greatest concern is that a ceasefire would allow Russia to regroup and launch another attack. This is why Ukraine needs Western weapons and a sufficiently large army.
Previously, Putin stated that any peace agreement should be based on the so-called Istanbul agreements. According to the latest draft document from spring 2022, it prohibits foreign troops in Ukraine, joint exercises, and Kyiv's membership in any external military alliances:
"Last year, American media reported details of these documents, which stated that foreign weapons, including missiles, should not enter Ukrainian territory. It was reported that the parties still disagree on several issues, particularly regarding restrictions on the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia insisted on limiting the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 85,000 personnel and 342 tanks, as well as restricting the range of Ukrainian missiles to 40 kilometers, while Ukraine aimed for an army of 250,000 personnel and 800 tanks, with a missile range of 280 kilometers."
What Does the EU Say?
Interestingly, Putin's aide Nikolai Patrushev stated that negotiations regarding Ukraine should occur solely between the Russian Federation and the United States. In other words, discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine.
Furthermore, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, in an interview with "BBC News Ukraine," claimed that Putin has no intention of speaking with Kyiv and will negotiate with the Americans. Klimkin is confident that such negotiations are already taking place. According to him, it is likely that a ready document will simply be brought to Kyiv and they will be told that peace will look like this.
Such statements have raised concerns among EU diplomats. An article in Euractiv discusses how Europeans want to ensure they have a seat at the table for any future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, but they risk receiving only a folding chair. The key concern among diplomats is that Trump may be inclined to hold bilateral negotiations with Putin, sidelining the Europeans:
"In recent months, Ukrainian officials have intensified their messages about the important role of Trump, rarely openly criticizing him for his comments. Zelensky recently used a three-hour podcast interview in the U.S. to explain Kyiv's vision for potential peace negotiations, attributing a key role to Trump in forcing Russia to cease hostilities. Informed officials state that after winning the election in November 2024, Trump signaled to both Zelensky and Macron that Europeans would be responsible for overseeing and ensuring a future ceasefire in Ukraine."
The article's authors noted that Trump's future representative in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, postponed his introductory trip to Kyiv until after the U.S. president's inauguration on January 20. European diplomats called this a first positive signal that Trump seems to have moved away from his initial goal of ending the war in 24 hours, suggesting that "six months" is a more realistic target. For his part, Kellogg stated that the Trump administration would seek to find a "solution" within the first 100 days in office.
Negotiation Format
A key question will be in what format future negotiations can take place and who will be able to sit at the table. European diplomats say there are currently no specific plans on paper. According to several of them, this may change when EU foreign ministers meet for their first negotiations on January 27, after Trump's inauguration.
The majority of EU leaders have made it clear that they want to avoid a limited forum like "Minsk," which would exclude a wide range of interests across the bloc. The EU's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, stated that "the EU is also ready to take on this leadership role if the U.S. does not wish to do so":
"I am really confident that all other members, and hopefully the U.S. as well, are ready to continue supporting Ukraine."
While Europeans in contacts with Trump's circle insist on the necessity of continuing American military assistance to strengthen Ukraine's position in negotiations, EU diplomats say it remains unclear whether the "Ramstein" format under U.S. leadership will continue or whether they will be forced to shift to a coalition led by Europe.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who met with Trump in early January, stated that she "does not foresee a division within the U.S.":
"Regarding peace, Trump may be the one who moves forward to a resolution, but I don't think that means abandoning Ukraine."
In December 2024, European leaders began testing potential coalition groups. EU officials stated they expect such formats to continue in the coming weeks and months as peace negotiations materialize.
As Germany approaches snap elections and France is weak internally, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to play a key role in forming a European coalition around support for Ukraine during the next six months of Warsaw's EU presidency. The article's authors note that Poland will undoubtedly be the complete opposite of its predecessor in the presidency – Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orban's controversial solo diplomatic "peace mission" in Moscow, Beijing, and Mar-a-Lago has left a bad taste that will be felt in any future negotiations. However, there are more roles likely to be filled:
"The EU must be present [as an institution] in future negotiations, as it is one of the significant providers and coordinators of assistance to Ukraine," said the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Marie Dumoulin.
"For now, Europeans must continue to tell the U.S. that forcing Ukrainians to negotiate is a recipe for failure and will make the U.S. appear weak if the outcome is more favorable to Russia than to Ukraine and its Western partners."
According to Marie Dumoulin, Europeans must make it clear that it is in the U.S. interest not to enter these negotiations with Europeans and Ukrainians but to have a virtually unified Western position. However, most EU diplomats and officials acknowledge that there has not been much discussion about what members want to achieve from any future negotiations:
"It is not just important to be at the table, but also to have a clear understanding of why you are there and what you want to achieve through negotiations."
Zelensky on Negotiations
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also made a statement regarding possible negotiations. He noted that security guarantees are necessary before any negotiations can