How did this happen, are there chances to stop it in the second round of the presidential elections, who are his competitors, and how is Georgescu similar to Viktor Orban – writes RBK-Ukraine. This has been reported by Kontrakty.UA.
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Romania has remained an important, though not always public ally of Ukraine. Through Romanian ports, Ukraine was able to break the maritime transport blockade imposed by the Russian Federation. Bucharest provides Ukraine with weapons and also accepts refugees. However, Romania's position may change, at least in part, not in favor of Ukraine in the coming weeks.
In the long list of elections taking place worldwide in 2024, the Romanian elections were considered relatively calm. The two leading parties – the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – were supposed to compete for power in the country. The presidential elections are scheduled for November 24, and the parliamentary elections for December 1.
The presidential elections brought surprises. Contrary to all polls, both candidates from the two top parties – the incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) – failed to advance to the second round.
Instead, the struggle for the presidency is between the "independent" radical far-right candidate Kelin Georgescu, who garnered 22.94% of the votes, and the pro-European (and pro-Ukrainian) opposition candidate Elena Lascu from the Save Romania Union (USR) with 19.18% of the votes.
Who advanced to the second round of the presidential elections
Georgescu openly declares his far-right views and even boasts about them. In particular, he glorifies the times when Romania was an ally of Nazi Germany during World War II. He has also referred to Russia's war against Ukraine as a result of a "conspiracy by American arms manufacturers."
However, following his success in the first round of elections, he began to adjust his position. For example, on November 27, the politician denied accusations against him that he allegedly wants to withdraw Romania from NATO and the European Union.
"I never said that. But I did say that I want to negotiate and prioritize national interests. We cannot accept everything; we need to discuss everything for the benefit of the Romanian people, regardless of whether you belong to any club," Georgescu stated.
The consensus among Romanian and European media is that Georgescu's high result was made possible due to protest voting and the fear of war among some voters dissatisfied with mainstream parties, as well as the candidate's successful use of TikTok.
"With the Romanian presidential candidate who suddenly shot to fame, Europe has effectively gained a third 'dove of peace' alongside Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Viktor Orban. The main message of Kelin Georgescu's election campaign is a 'peaceful' policy, which requires being on good terms with everyone, even with the aggressor state," said RBK-Ukraine analyst Vitaliy Dyachuk from the Central European Strategy Institute and the Re:Open Ukraine project.
Georgescu's opponent, Elena Lascu, also represents the opposition, yet she is pro-European and less radical. A former journalist, she positions herself as a new face in contrast to the old political elites.
Lascu has also stated the need to strengthen support for Ukraine. Among other things, she criticized the current Romanian government for not shooting down Russian drones flying over the country's territory.
However, who will win in the second round remains uncertain.
What are the candidates' chances
Both Georgescu and Lascu need to attract voters who supported other candidates in the first round.
Georgescu may count on votes cast for the leader of the far-right and anti-Ukrainian party AUR, George Simion, who received 13.87% in the first round.
Meanwhile, Georgescu benefits from the fact that not much is known about him, despite his protest appeal.
"Playing on the fear of war, he forgot to mention the Russian Shahed drones that occasionally land on Romanian territory and the alarm signals that have been sounding in Romania's border regions for a long time. Similarly, behind confident slogans about peace, he has yet to delve into explaining what position he would take in relations with the EU and the Russian Federation and how Romania would formulate its corresponding policy. So far, this is just populism without a practical program," Dyachuk told the publication.
On the other hand, Lascu has already received support from the leadership of the National Liberals, seemingly perceiving her as the "lesser evil."
We should also expect the mobilization of pro-European citizens in Romania to prevent Georgescu from coming to power. Protests demanding that the radical not be allowed to take power have already swept across Romania.
By December 8, when the second round of elections will take place, both candidates will try to attract new supporters without losing their old ones.
At the same time, other far-right forces are trying to ensure that in the second round Georgescu competes not against Lascu but against social democrat Ciolacu (who, following his defeat, has already resigned as party leader and has not contested the election results). In this case, it would be easier for Georgescu to criticize his opponent.
To this end, the candidate allied with the far-right AUR party, Cristian Terhes (who garnered around 1%), has appealed to the Constitutional Court for a recount of the votes. The fact is that Lascu advanced to the second round with a mere 2,000 votes ahead of Ciolacu. The Constitutional Court has already decided to recount the votes (which is technically impossible to do quickly), and the final decision on the case is expected to be made today, November 29, but it may be postponed.
Parliamentary safeguard
Romania is a presidential-parliamentary republic. This means that the head of state can potentially influence decisions regarding the provision of weapons to Ukraine, block sanctions against Russia, and affect Ukraine's integration into the EU and NATO. However, the good news for Ukraine is that even if Georgescu comes to power, the parliament will balance the president's influence. Elections for the parliament will take place this Sunday, December 1.
As an independent candidate, Georgescu does not have his own party. However, he may be supported by the far-right parties AUR and "SOS Romania." In 2020, AUR even proposed Georgescu for the position of Prime Minister, should it come to power.
According to aggregated data from Politico polls, both parties currently can expect 17% and 6%, respectively.
Lascu's USR party could receive 13%. Meanwhile, the National Liberals have 17%, and the Social Democrats have 31%. The "Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania" party also has a chance to enter parliament with 5%. Thus, arithmetically, the majority should remain with the systemic National Liberals and Social Democrats.
However, the challenge is whether the majority of the Romanian political class can unite against the radicals. Especially since, following their defeat in the presidential elections, the leaders of the National Liberals and Social Democrats, Nicolae Ciucă and Marcel Ciolacu, have resigned from their party leadership positions. The fierce struggle among pro-European forces, including the leaking of compromising material, has become one of the factors behind the shocking victory of "independent" Georgescu in the first round.
Another warning for Europe
Regardless of the outcome of these elections, a similar trend is emerging in Romania as in other Western countries – the rise of non-system populists.
"Given that the anti-globalization movement is gaining momentum in many countries, the focus is shifting away from unity for the common good towards a deeper national state, emphasizing nationalist principles. As a result, statements by politicians about preserving national identity and 'sovereignty' of national states within the EU are gaining popularity among voters," Dyachuk told RBK-Ukraine.
According to him, the opposition between "us" (as the people of a specific country) and "them" (the European Union, Brussels) is working very well. This method has been successfully tested and used by Viktor Orban in his confrontation with the European Commission. The modern voter's desire is to see a "president who would go to Brussels and stand tall, not on his knees." This is a direct quote from one of the Romanian businessmen after the first round of presidential elections, Dyachuk emphasized.
Georgescu utilized all these tools in his short but vivid online campaign.
According to the expert, the politician has also crafted an image of a confident professional with a Western education in contrast to the existing politicians from PNL and PSD, who have become tiresome for Romanians with their coalitions and infighting. Despite this, he has managed