The President of the United States, Donald Trump, is issuing threats to the Russian dictator, while Vladimir Putin responds with flattery. However, their rivalry contains significant signals, including the revival of discussions surrounding nuclear arms control. Reports TSN. This has been reported by Kontrakty.UA.
This was written in the NYT.
What Trump and Putin Want
It is known that Trump was extremely harsh in his rhetoric last week, stating that Putin is "destroying Russia," and threatened sanctions and tariffs against the country if it does not come to the negotiating table. Analysts note that this is a rather empty threat, given the minuscule volume of trade between the U.S. and Russia.
Putin responded with flattery, agreeing with Trump that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if he had been president three years ago. He reiterated his willingness to sit down and negotiate the fate of Europe "superpower to superpower, leader to leader."
"In laying the groundwork for this initial conversation, they are sending signals that they want to negotiate not only about Ukraine — a war that, according to Putin, is just one of the arenas where the West is waging its own struggle against Russia," the article states.
As the publication notes, the relationship between Moscow and Washington is crucial for politics. It is likely that the revival of negotiations regarding nuclear weapons will also be on the agenda. The fact is that the main treaty limiting the arsenals of both countries will expire in almost a year. After that, they will be free to engage in an arms race the world has not seen since the Cold War.
"The last negotiations on arms control were concluded shortly before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since then, Mr. Putin has claimed that any negotiations on nuclear weapons limitation must also encompass the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration has refused to mix these two issues, fearing that Putin's real aim was to exchange limitations on his nuclear arsenal for territory he seized in Ukraine and other concessions," analysts explained.
However, Mr. Trump appears open to broader negotiations. This is precisely what Putin would desire, which may allow him to make this compromise.
It remains unclear what long-term security guarantees Mr. Trump is willing to offer President Volodymyr Zelensky, who, as he insisted in recent days, should have reached an agreement with Putin to avoid a devastating war.
"Mr. Trump clearly wants to position himself as a peacemaker: during his first term, he claimed he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize, and that stopping the largest war in Europe since World War II would strengthen his arguments. He seems unconcerned about giving Ukraine a significant role in this process, unlike former president Joe Biden, whose mantra was 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,'" noted the NYT.
According to Stephen Sestanovich, an expert on Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former State Department official, despite all the tumultuous exchanges of opinions, what Putin most wants to hear is that an agreement will be made solely between Russia and the U.S.
Retired General Keith Kellogg, whom Mr. Trump has tasked with initiating negotiations at the age of 80, insists that the economic aspect will be crucial, rather than the losses.
"When you look at Putin, you can't just say, 'Well, stop killing,' because, honestly, that's not their mentality." Mr. Trump approaches the war differently: he views the economy as part of this war. And he will focus on limiting Russia's oil revenues," he said.
It is also emphasized that:
- The head of the Russian Federation is confident in his position on the front in Ukraine despite significant losses, and he is trying to demonstrate a waiting position to Trump. Russia's objectives have not changed, and while it is open to negotiations to end the war, it will do so only on its own terms;
- Putin will demand the retention of approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory currently controlled by Russia, as well as an agreement that excludes Ukraine's NATO membership and limits the size of its armed forces;
- The dictator has clearly indicated his readiness to engage with Mr. Trump and, in a broader sense, with the United States after three years of diplomatic isolation under the Biden administration;
- Last week, the Russian president made two attempts to praise Trump, which is a tried-and-true method to win his favor.
"We probably should meet and calmly discuss all areas of interest to both the U.S. and Russia based on today's realities," Putin said. He dismissed Trump's threats of sanctions, calling him "smart" and "pragmatic," and spoke Trump's language by claiming that the 2020 election was "stolen" from him, as stated in the article.
Putin's invitation for "broad negotiations" seemingly highlighted his optimism regarding Trump, despite the tough words from the U.S. leader directed at Russia last week and the fact that the president imposed a series of new sanctions against Russia during his first presidential term.
Last week, Mr. Trump also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He accused him of failing to reach an agreement with Putin that could have prevented the war.
"I could easily have made that deal, but Zelensky decided, 'I want to fight,'" Trump said.
He made it clear, the journalists write, that he is not interested in Mr. Biden's approach of supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary. However, with his tough rhetoric directed at Putin last week, he may be trying to show that he is "not a weakling" to the Russian leader, while simultaneously preparing for the possibility that he will not be able to convince Putin to strike a deal that satisfies all parties.
"To throw Putin off balance, Trump must show him that an agreement is only possible if it benefits Ukraine and our allies," Sestanovich stated.
Despite Mr. Putin welcoming negotiations with Trump, Russian officials have not deviated from their common message regarding the United States as a harmful force. This is one sign that the Kremlin is playing it safe in case negotiations with Trump do not go well.
Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman warns: if negotiations with Russia begin, the Trump administration must be prepared.
"Putin will want what he has always wanted: as much territory as possible, no Ukraine in NATO, no Western nuclear weapons in Europe that could be aimed at Russia. Given this, he bets that the actual negotiations for extending the new START treaty are probably at the very bottom of his list," Sherman noted.
Earlier, it was mentioned that sanction pressure on the Russian Federation from Trump could be the key to peace, while others doubt the effectiveness of this approach.