The involvement of Belarus in the war initiated by Russia against Ukraine in the foreseeable future seems unlikely. Such actions could pose a significant threat to the position of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and the internal political stability of the Republic of Belarus. Reports TCN. This information comes from Kontrakty.UA.
The conclusion was reached by the Latvian Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution, which performs counterintelligence functions, as reported by Delfi.
Experts from the bureau believe that the Lukashenko regime currently remains stable. It is noted that this stability is largely maintained through repression and restrictions on freedom of speech. However, Minsk's dependency on Moscow is increasing, as is Russia's influence over Belarus. Russian interests continue to dominate the country's foreign policy.
The bureau emphasizes: it is quite possible that many of the tools of Russian influence in Belarus will persist even after the departure of Lukashenko and Russian "Fuhrer" Vladimir Putin. Additionally, the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2024 and 2025 have shown that the regime still controls the situation in Belarus.
In the past year, 2024, repression by security forces against opposition figures and their relatives continued to escalate in Belarus. Meanwhile, the opposition remained active last year, but the low level of interest in the activities of democratic forces can be attributed to several factors. For its part, the Russian Federation also made efforts to further integrate Belarus into the unified state system.
According to counterintelligence estimates, it is unlikely that Belarus will be directly involved in Russia's war against Ukraine in the foreseeable future, as this could significantly undermine the country's internal political stability and Lukashenko's positions, especially considering the strong public disapproval of direct Belarusian military participation in hostilities.
Lukashenko's cooperation with the Kremlin serves as a guarantee of his presidential powers, allowing him to maintain control and ensure the stability of his regime. However, the Belarusian dictator realizes that such support threatens his ability to govern the country in the long term, prompting Lukashenko to increasingly worry about the need to reduce Belarus's isolation from the West in order to balance Russian influence, as stated in the report.
Recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing 100-150 thousand personnel to strengthen the Belarusian direction. According to him, this grouping may not only target Ukraine but also neighboring Poland.